A new chapter 🛸

Beyond prediction markets

www.ufo.holdings

Firstly, I want to express deep gratitude to my readership.

When I started this Substack, the idea was to become “the Nate Silver or Matt Levine of prediction markets.” Well, I realized that I’m not Nate, nor am I Matt - they are inimitable.

Even so, this humble blog has changed my life completely and has opened up a world of opportunity that I couldn’t have imagined prior.

One example of this is that I somehow got to start a whole new venture capital firm called 5c(c) Capital. Ostensibly, the idea for the firm was to invest in early stage startups in the prediction market ecosystem. My Substack is about prediction markets, I understand prediction markets, and so my venture firm is about prediction markets. It was simple, and it made sense.

That said, as I continued to do the work of building a VC firm from scratch, I began to learn about new sectors, consider interesting new market structures and assets, and most importantly, meet fantastic and special entrepreneurs who are building things that aren’t prediction-market-related per se.

What I choose to write about on this blog is really just a reflection of what’s on my mind and the conversations I’m having with incredibly smart people on a daily basis. Since I started the Substack last summer, that has been mostly prediction markets and the regulatory matrix surrounding them.

But these days, I’ve been learning a lot about other things too: compute, perpetual futures, insurance brokerage, leverage, crypto, agentic commerce… the list goes on.

Now that my mind is on other things, I want to share the distillation of those thoughts on this platform too. It’s what I’ve been doing for 9 months now and I appreciate that so many of you appreciate it.

New direction, new name

The name of this blog was Fifty Cent Dollars, a reference to a niche prediction market meme. Now, this publication is growing beyond prediction markets, it makes sense to consider a bit of a re-brand.

At the same time, 5c(c) Capital received a cease-and-desist from another similarly named investment firm, and we are having to change the name of that as well. I don’t blame them, 5c(c) is a pretty cool name I guess and I’d want to keep it to myself as well. Shrug.

So, I figured that this is a great opportunity to re-brand both the blog and the VC firm I’m running, and combine them while we’re at it.

The new name is UFO Holdings¹.

Here’s the one-liner: UFO Holdings is a worldview-driven investment firm backing builders on the frontiers of the New Economy.

I’ll still be writing here regularly and aim to continue delivering the thoughtful, accessible, and opinionated content that you have come to expect. Prediction markets were the first chapter, and I owe it so much. But, I aim to be forward-looking, not heat-seeking, and there is much more on the horizon to write about and invest in.

Thanks for everything so far, and stay tuned.

1. The etymology of the new name will remain a mystery.